[taco]

There are some (unreliable) rumours that some National MPs are upset at Simon Bridges current decorum level around the coronavirus stuff. While I think it's very unlikely they'll try oust him so close to the election, the way things are currently going it seems likely that Labour will win the next election. If most National MPs agree, they may be waiting until then to oust Simon Bridges, and then begin an exciting new contest for leader. I've had a look over the National list (including both exiting and expected members) and am proposing factions.

The way the leadership vote worked last election is 5 candidates put their hat in for leader, one withdrew before the vote started (Mark Mitchell) and the other 4 were voted for by the National party members. Simon Bridges and Amy Adams went through to the next round of voting, while Judith Collins and Steven Joyce were eliminated (Steven Joyce soon after resigned). Simon Bridges won the next vote and was elected leader.

It’s worth noting that there is a sizable portion of electorate-controlling members (especially former mayors, councillors, and those from old political families) that seem unambitious/aren’t scheming Machiavellians. I expect those ones to vote in their faction in an early vote but after that, by stuff like “electability” or how charismatic they are. However, electorate MPs are the exact members that have the safety net to try shenanigans.

Each name has their rank of the left but it’s worth noting these are Simon Bridges’ rankings.



Simon Bridges Loyalists – I think these people will stand with Bridges because without him they’ll lose rank and power.

• (2) Paula Bennet: While she’s been more than one leader’s deputy I think if a new leader rises they’re likely to choose a strategic deputy rather than a Bill English era unity candidate.
• (8) Gerry Brownlee: He’s been around a while and I don’t think he’ll go any higher in the party (unless with Judith? I dunno), any reshuffle will probably be at his expense
• (40) Erica Stanford: Paula and Gerry B. have old affiliations to former MP Murray McCully and have in the past, schemed together. While a backbencher and more junior, Erica has worked for Murray in the past as well and may hope to move up faster by that affiliation?
• (3) Paul Goldsmith: List MP (Epsom) whose professional career is writing Hagiographies. I feel he’s less of a schemer and more of a worker.
• (5) Todd McClay: He’s probably Simon’s right hand man after the Jami-Lee Ross betrayal. Otherwise he’d align with the Internationalists. Former diplomat and UN type.
• (23) Simon O’Connor: He is married to Simon Bridges’ sister. He did train as a Catholic Priest and is a royalist though so may switch to the Christian faction after a coup

Overt Christians – While most National members share typical Christian conservative/family values morals, these members are explicitly and sincerely Christian. It’s tricky for this faction, a coup before the election will be without Luxon, after the election they’ll probably lose Loheni and Garcia.

• (34) Simeon Brown: Young, ambitious conservative who may have a go at power. However, he’s so far been a loyalist slime.
• (n/a) Chris Luxon: If he wins Botany in the election, there was quite a lot of excitement around him when he first stepped forward, anticipated to be the second coming of John Key. He could plausibly unite the Christian and Internationalist/Business factions, but he’s new and his work’ll be cut out for him.
• (47) Agnes Loheni: She’s a list member though so may not get back in if National do poorly
• (48) Paulo Garcia: Low ranked list MP
• (19) Jonathan Young
• (25) Tim Macindoe
• (11) Alf Ngaro: Brielfly considered quitting National to start a Christian values party, but changed his mind. It’s risky being a List MP.

Farmers – This is a big faction, however I think they’re low energy, there’s one or two more prominent members that they might rally behind. Many of them are retiring at the election so best time for this faction to act is now.

• (41) Tim Van de Molen: “NZ Young Farmer of the Year 2013”, and a banker. While he’s very farm-orientated now that he’s achieved some notable farm ambitions he may turn his gaze to leadership
• (21) Barbara Kuriger: “Dairy Woman of the Year”, I think if her family dairy company wasn’t found guilty of cruelty and neglect of animals she’d look good in the limelight
• (45) Nicola Willis: While not really a farmer, did work for Fonterra and close to Bill English and John Key, may allow her to lead a farmer alliance?
• (31) Ian McKelvie
• (27) Stuart Smith
• (16) Todd Mueller
• (33) Jo Hayes
• (35) Andrew Falloon
• (18) David Bennett
• (Exiting politics) David Carter: Probably still has a lot of clout and could rally some of the older members, as well as his nephew Matt Doocey
• (Exiting politics) Sarah Dowie
• (Exiting politics) Nathan Guy
• (Exiting politics) Alistair Scott

Cops, Soldiers and Machiavellians – This is a bit of a weird coalition, and they’re just as likely to stab each other in the back, but likely to fall into line behind a leader to get whatever positions are left. Most known to have worked with Lusk or Slater (Dirty Politics)

• (4) Judith Collins: Literally has a copy of The Prince on her bookshelf, married to a policeman cum milk exporter, shady Chinese connections, a big player in the machinations of Cameron Slater and Simon Lusk, has always wanted power and prepared to scheme for it
• (6) Mark Mitchell: Policeman then Iraq war mercenary, also associated with Simon Lusk and Slater. Contested the leadership then dropped out before the vote, presumably somebody guaranteed him something in exchange
• (15) Chris Bishop: Tobacco lobbyist, Steven Joyce staffer, my electorates MP, I think he’s the same sort of ambitious schemer
• (28) Dr Shane Reti: Was in territorial force, has been accused of bullying/making political threats to an advocacy group in his electorate
• (39) Chris Penk: Navy, up and coming
• (26) Brett Hudson
• (37) Matt King
• (contesting Otaki) Tim Costley: Air Force
• (exiting politics) Nicky Wagner: worked with Simon Lusk

Internationalists – A small faction that could probably be included in with the previous, ambitious types with money and connections. They would all make great Bond villains.

• (32) Andrew Bayley: Ironman, Antarctic mountaineer, he and his sons sledded to the North Pole. Been in the army and a paratrooper? An accountant, he and his (evil?) twin brother have built a successful firm and he has been the director of various international interests.
• (46) Dan Bidois: Adopted, high school drop out, bone cancer survivor. Went from butcher to international strategy manager at Foodstuffs, working in US, France, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Malaysia.
• (9) Michael Woodhouse

The faction that was formerly Amy Adams' – A “socially progressive” faction of the National party, Amy Adams narrowly lost out to Simon Bridges in the 2018 leadership contest, was a lacklustre finance minister, then announced her retirement. While no longer a truly coherent faction, may re-coalesce around a bold candidate. May draw votes from unambitious electorate MPs on electability etc. Paula Bennet might attempt a leadership under this banner?

• (exiting politics) Amy Adams: Did she leave because she missed her chance at leadership? Or was she pushed? Would she rally if there was a new appetite for a more progressive National party?
• (7) Nikki Kaye: Driven, recently survived a cancer scare, a good candidate to lead this faction
• (22) Matt Doocey: A counselling psychologist, I think he fits in here. He’s of the Carter Clan which may or may not be valuable
• (38) Denise Lee
• (10) Louise Upston
• (36) Harete Hipango
• (Exiting politics) Maggie Barry

International community representatives - List MPs that work to collect votes of the respective nationalities. I think they wont stick their necks out, but probably align with the Internationalists best

• (29) Dr Jian Yang: A Chinese Spy? A valuable asset for Chinese diplomacy to the National Party, can probably feel safe
• (14) Melissa Lee: probably the highest profile of this group, may also make her the most ambitious
• (30) Dr Parmjeet Parmar
• (24) Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi

???? I don’t know where these people go. I think we can assume they’ll more or less vote randomly and/or back the least offensive candidate.

• (20) Nick Smith: Once deputy, he’s been around a million years and I think whatever connections he once has have atrophied away
• (17) Anne Tolley
• (13) Jacqui Dean: Afraid of all drugs, including Dihydrogen Monoxide. Probably will back the most reactionary candidate
• (43) Lawrence Yule
• (contesting Selwyn) Nicola Grigg: Journalist, thinks wheat is important for her electorate so may align with farmers?

Worms

• (44) Maureen Pugh: When the phone call was leaked where Simon Bridges called her “Fucking useless”, she immediately announced that she forgave him and tried to spin it like she was an eager advocate for her community. Simon apologised and gave her nothing
• (12) Scott Simpson: Became an MP after he lost the National Party Presidency (and his wife!) to Peter Goodfellow

[taco]

Who do you guys think will be the next Top Model?

my favourites are: Andrew Bayley, Mark Mitchell, Tim Van de Molen.

If National keep a strong share of the vote but lose next election, I could see Luxon trying a coup, or maybe Simeon Brown.
If National do especially poorly, I could see Nikki Kaye having a go

Also, tell me if I'm wrong! Do you think these factions are naive? Do National MPs unite over other interests?

[NZs no.3]

The amount of effort you put into this for something i hardly pay attention to is astounding. I hope someone can give you a worthy post based off your efforts.

[womblemuppet]

I think I'll have to see the whole board in person some time...

Internationalists – A small faction that could probably be included in with the previous, ambitious types with money and connections. They would all make great Bond villains.

• (32) Andrew Bayley: Ironman, Antarctic mountaineer, he and his sons sledded to the North Pole. Been in the army and a paratrooper? An accountant, he and his (evil?) twin brother have built a successful firm and he has been the director of various international interests.
• (46) Dan Bidois: Adopted, high school drop out, bone cancer survivor. Went from butcher to international strategy manager at Foodstuffs, working in US, France, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Malaysia.
• (9) Michael Woodhouse

Dan graduated from Harvard!? Michael is 9 years old? This is the most impressive group by far, I can see them taking Labour by storm.

---

Good job with the whole write-up... as I said I'll be waiting for the house mottos.

could you explain the bit about Collins's husband?

[taco]

he was once a police officer but now is a company director type. there was a scandal some time in the past where Judith Collins “endorsed” a milk product her husband was exporting to China. There was also some insinuations of her having covert dealings with some Chinese buisinessmen.

anyway, the cop/military/machiavellian faction is arguably a bit of a stretch, but it started off with Judith and Mark Mitchell and one or two others going together for Dirty Politics connections then bringing in the other “soldiers”, not sure if a mutual respect for discipline/the forces is faction establishing

[Jargonion]

you an ijit

[womblemuppet]

I think if Simon Bridges stays as National leader then we're 100% getting Jacinda again next term. It's actually funny that I haven't found anyone who likes him yet. There's definitely enough time for National to cut their head off and regrow. Jacinda's handling of the pandemic hasn't been bad, but who knows what people will be feeling like in a month.

[taco]

obviously a partisan tweet, but leaked results from Curia poll (run by National partisan David Farrar), while probably unrepresentative, give ambitious or desperate players in National a good casus belli for a coup. Wondering if David leaked this on behalf of a Whale-oil affiliated politician, or it was leaked by a National party adversary??

[taco]

also, electorates will change slightly, including in Tauranga!

what does this mean? probably nothing!

[womblemuppet]

it's just about time for someone young and trendy old and wise to take National by storm and cause a media frenzy..